HDFC Securities Broker Research reports

Spandana Sphoorty Financial Limited IPO Note Issue Open: August 05 August 07, 2019, Price Band: Rs. 853 856, Issue Size: 14,029,622 eq shares (Fresh issue of 4,672,897 + 9,356,725 Offer for sale)

Stable taxes in FY19 accelerated cig volume/EBIT growth to 5.5/9% vs. -5/7% CAGR during FY15-18. Even then ITC did not enjoy a re-rating as investors flocked towards peers like HUL, Dabur and Britannia etc. Rather, cig business saw a de-rating (20-25%, based on assigning fair valuation to other segments) over the last 12-months. We believe the quantum of de-rating is unfair and expect implied cig valuation will recover to its 5 year average EV/EBITDA of 18x (20% discount to Colgate's 1 year forward EV/EBITDA of 22x; similar market leadership, vol growth and pricing power). Mean reversion in cig valuation will be led by (1) Stable taxes, (2) EBIT margin expansion and (3) Pickup in rural consumption. FMCG margin expansion is the other catalyst for a re-rating. We believe that unfair valuation discount will narrow. ITCs 1Q performance was soft vs. its FY19 show but in-line with FMCG peers. We expect 1Q growth trajectory to replicate over FY20, led by higher base of cig. volume growth and consumption slowdown. We value ITC on SoTP basis and arrive at a TP of Rs 362 (implied P/E of 28x vs. earlier assigned P/E of 32x). We de-rate cigarette business by 10% (EV/EBITDA 18x vs. 20x implied earlier) owing to slower than expected volume growth in the era of stable taxes. Maintain BUY.

We retain BUY on Dalmia Bharat with a TP of Rs 1,470 (12x FY21 consolidated EBITDA). We continue to like Dalmia for its high op margin (of Rs 1,000/MT+ on strong cost controls), expanding regional presence (all India ex-north) and fast growth at prudent cost (capex < USD 70/MT). We value Dalmia at 12x its FY21E consolidated EBITDA (implied EV of USD 143/MT). The stock trades at attractive valuations of 8.3x FY21E EBIITDA and at EV of USD 99/MT.

After sustained improvement over FY19, SBIN disappointed on asset quality in 1QFY20. Slower than expected resolution in NCLT cases, a buildup in anticipated stress and deteriorating macros are likely to postpone RoAA improvement (as credit costs rise). Our earnings estimates are highly sensitive to asset resolution outcomes. Nevertheless, the worst is long behind SBIN (in terms of asset quality). SBINs mostly in line operating performance in 1QFY20 was marred by higher than expected slippages. Additional stress and slower resolutions will delay the expected RoAA improvement. Maintain BUY. Our SOTP (1.3x Jun-21E ABV of Rs 228 + Rs 101 sub value) is Rs 398.

BSE has been investing in future growth drivers like INX, Insurance distribution, SME and StAR MF. Out of these only StAR MF has started generating revenue while the rest would need more time. Incremental revenue from StAR MF, volume revival and higher listing fee should lead to revenue growth of 11.1/11.8% in FY20/21E. We expect some operating leverage to play out with growth (EBITDA margin of 11.4/15.8% for FY20/21E). The stock is down 23% in the last 3M due to stress in the tradition revenue stream, continued investments despite slowdown and buyback tax. Value is emerging with net cash of Rs 20bn (~80% of MCap) and a dividend yield of ~7%. Risks include a rise in competition, loss of market share and an increase in investments. We maintain BUY on BSE based on in-line revenue and better margins. Increasing revenue contribution from StAR MF platform and rise in listing fee (exclusively listed) are positives. Buyback of Rs 4.6bn will be completed and tax applicable is only Rs 0.12bn (~3%). We arrive at a SoTP of Rs 655 at 25x core FY21E PAT plus Rs 134/share for stake in CDSL plus net-cash (ex-buyback and with 20% discount).

eClerx has witnessed USD revenue stagnation (+0.1% 12-qtr-CQGR) coupled with a structural swing in operating model (shift to onshore) resulting in EBIT margin plummet from 33.5% to 13.8% in the past 12 qtrs. We reckon that the shift to onshore will continue given the on-site heavy digital projects coupled with low demand for traditional KPO services. We remain cautious on high concentration and stagnation of T-10 accounts, shorter duration projects providing limited visibility and lower quality of revenue mix. We factor USD rev/EPS CAGR of 5.5/-2.3% over FY19-22E. High cash (~25% of Mcap) and dividend yield (4%) will provide some cushion. Company will maintain payout of ~50% of PAT but recent tax on buybacks has curbed the value arbitrage. Risks to our thesis include traction in digital portfolio and increased off shoring. We downgrade eClerx to SELL following margin washout and limited growth visibility. eClerx has lost the plot, we cut EPS est. by ~16% and P/E to 9x (vs. 11x) Jun-21E EPS to arrive at TP of Rs 505.

Despite an encouraging quarter on collections, PEPL has seen further debt built up (due to asset portfolio stake consolidation), posing a challenge for the management in achieving optimal leverage. Further pending capex includes Rs 13bn/4-5bn for Office and Retail/ Hospitality respectively. One of the few positives is that ~60% of debt is backed either by annuity or by rental securitization/ bill discounting. Launches were largely tilted towards commercial projects. Asset stake sale is key for further re-rating. Retain NEU with Rs 286/sh TP. We maintain NEU on Prestige Estate (PEPL) owing to muted presales, increasing debt and limited visibility on asset monetization. Our SOTP based TP is Rs 286/sh. We remain constructive on leasing business and cap rate compression in declining interest rate scenario will cap valuation downside.

We continue to like Star for its leadership positioning in the lucrative NE region (best EBITDA margins) will further rise (on-going expansions). Star's industry leading margins should gain from increased local coal availability and cost reduction from upcoming WHRS. Thus, Star should sustain its industry leading profitability/ return ratios, while retaining a net cash balance sheet. Star currently trades at a mere 6.6x FY21E EBITDA (EV of USD 117/MT). Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 140 (10x consol FY21E EBITDA). We maintain BUY on Star Cement with a TP of Rs 140 (10x FY21 consol EBITDA), implying EV of USD 177/MT.

We reiterate BUY as (1) Volume growth is expected in mid-teens with the commissioning of the DFC. We are building in 6%/14%/18% growth in volumes over FY20/21/22E (2) The medium term growth opportunity post DFC will drive up valuations (3) ROEs are expected to improve to 15.9% in FY22E (from 12.6% in FY19) Key risk: Any increase in charges by Indian railways. Despite flat volumes, Container Corporation (CCRI) reported a healthy beat in EBITDA margins at 24.6%. Medium term growth drivers are intact as the co will benefit from phased commissioning of the DFC and from margin efficiencies. Reiterate BUY with a revised TP of Rs 660 (at 24x Sep-21 EPS).

Marico is amidst a copra deflationary cycle and plans to capitalize by building its futuristic portfolio. The co. is reinvesting its GM expansion into higher A&P spends to support new launches. In the recent past, the co. has launched several products in categories like premium hair oil, food and male grooming. Although the products are niche and may not have a high success rate, we admire the management's aggression which will aid in driving product diversification and long-term growth. Marico reported an all round show with (1) Market share gains, (2) Sharp GM expansion (522bps), (3) Aggressive A&P; spends (+32% YoY) to support NPD and (4) Robust EBITDA growth (adj. 26%). We remain constructive on Marico and believe its performance will be superior vs. its peers in FY20. We value the co. at 35x on Jun-21 EPS arriving at a TP of Rs 395. Maintain BUY.